The initial installed
generation capacities of both the Kainji and Jebba hydro plants are 760MW and
578MW respectively. This is a combined total of about 1338MW (1.3GW). However, as of today, Kainji and
Jebba hydroelectric plants have an operating generation capacity of only 110MW
and 450MW respectively which translates to a combined total operating capacity
of about 560MW. Today, Kainji
and Jebba plants operate at only 14% and 78% of their initial respective
installed capacities. This
works out to a total operating generation capacity that is approximately 42% of
the combined initial installed capacity of these plants.
In an article released in the
Punch [Dayo Oketola, November 21, 2103] titled “Mainstream increases Jebba
Plant’s Capacity to 450MW”, Mainstream stated that the agreed mandate in the
concession agreement is that within five (5) years, the company would recover
the lost capacities of both the Kainji and Jebba power plants. This total combined installed
capacity in the referenced article above was stated to be 1500MW but from my
analysis above it is actually 1338MW. The approximately 200MW difference could
be from additional 200MW unutilized design capacity at the Kainji Hydro plant.
This plant was designed for a total of 12 turbines which translates to a total
installed capacity of 960MW. However, only 8 turbines were installed at the
Kainji plant translating to an initial installed generation capacity of 760MW
at this plant.
If this strategy to recover the
lost capacity at these plants is successful, this would put us back to the
generation capacity of 1963 when the Kainji plant was installed and 1984 when
the Jebba plant was added to the power system. Mainstream’s strategy which has been agreed
with our leaders would take us 5 years to fully execute and implement but will
only get these major hydro plants to the installed generation capacities seen
30+ years ago. It
should be noted that there could also be additional 200MW supply if unused
available design capacity at the Kainji plant is utilized within the next 5
years.
I applaud Mainstream for their investment
in the acquired asset. This was expected and is a true measure of the value of
privatization in the generation sector. Hydroelectric assets require no fossil
fuels and this drastically reduces the cost of operating these plants. The
faster Mainstream energy invests in maximizing the generation output from both
Kainji and Jebba hydro plants, the faster they can generate revenues to recover
their cost of acquisition and investments. What
bothers me as a Nigerian is that we have to wait 5 years to have
generation capacities similar to what was present at these
plants over 30 years ago.
Nigeria is in this position
today because of huge unnecessary neglect by our leaders in the power sector
over many years. This neglect is part of the reason we have become a nation
that runs predominantly on diesel generators. This neglect has cost Nigerians to lose
billions of dollars of potential revenue/GDP from foreign and local
investments. This neglect has
stunted our growth across multiple sectors. How did Nigerians let this
happen? Why do we have to wait
for 5 years to enjoy the availability of the generation capacity and clean
energy that was supplied from these hydro plants over 30 years ago?
How did Nigerians let this get to such an embarrassing state? How can a country estimated to have
requirements of over 100GW of supply based on its population have just under
5GW? How can we fix it? When will we fix this? Nigerians, let us work together and
fix this!
From the analysis above, it takes no genius to know that we are
not going to achieve anywhere close to 40GW in 2020 at the pace we are
moving. There have been no announcement for any mega power projects similar in
magnitude to the ones discussed in this article that will be required to meet
the 40GW target for 2020. It should also
be clear that even the 10,000MW planned for 2014 is also far from our reach
given the limitation on the transmission network and generation supply.
