Fifty One (51) Hydroelectric Plants similar in size to Kainji Dam needed to meet 2020's 40MW Targets

The “Road Map for Power Sector Reform” set a target for Nigeria to attain a generation supply of 40GW by 2020. As mentioned in my previous article “Nigeria to make International History if Generation Supply grows to 10GW (100% growth) by 2014”, this corresponds to an annual growth rate of 37% which is an unrealistic growth rate when compared to annual growth rates in power sectors around the world.

To date, Nigeria has only been able to reach a peak generation supply of 4.5GW and this was achieved in December 2012. Since 2012, Nigeria has not been able to attain this peak generation supply due to unreliable transmission network, over loaded and aging equipment etc.

To bridge the generation supply gap to meet the 40MW supply by 2020, Nigeria would have to install approximately 35.5GW of generation capacity along with the corresponding expansion of the transmission grid in the next 7 years. This is approximately nine times the existing generation and transmission supply in the country today.

To put this in perspective, If Nigeria is to achieve the 40GW goal set by the Road Map by 2020, we would need approximately fifty one (51) hydroelectric dams with installed capacity similar to Kainji Dams to be constructed and put in service within the next 7 years. The Kanji Power plant is the largest hydroelectric power plant that has been constructed and commissioned in Nigeria. This Hydro plant was put into services in 1968 with a total installed capacity of 760MW (0.7GW). Since 1968, there has been no other hydroelectric generation facility of this size installed in Nigeria.

To illustrate even further, the Three Gorges Dam in China is the largest Hydro facility in the world. The Three Georges hydro plant has a total installed capacity of 22.5 GW. To meet the targets set out in “The Road Map for Power Sector Reform”, Nigeria would have to install approx. two hydro facilities each the size of the Three Gorges Dam within the next 7 years. It should be noted that this Hydro plant had a price tag of $21 billion and took a total of 18 years to construct.

One might ask that we could meet the 40MW generation target by installing natural gas or coal plants given the environmental concerns, high cost and long durations to construct a hydroelectric dam. Well, the largest natural gas generation plant in the world is the Surgut-2 plant in Russia and this plant has a total installed capacity of 5.6 GW. Also, the largest coal generation plant in the world is the Taichung Power Plant constructed in Taiwan. This coal plant has a total installed capacity of approximately 5.8GW.

From above, it is clear that if Nigeria plans to install 35.5GW of power within the next 7 years to meet the targets set out in the road map using natural gas or coal plants, we would need construct and install a minimum of the six of world’s largest natural gas or coal plants within the next seven years.

When put into perspective by comparing to the world’s largest power plants, it seems impractical to achieve these goals set out in the road maps. Nevertheless, Nigeria’s power problem needs to be fixed. If we really have the intention to fix the problems in the Nigerian power sector in our life time, we would need multiple Mega projects like the Three Gorges Dam, the Surgut-2 plant or the Taichung Power Plant to bridge the power shortage gap. A generation supply of 40GW is not our final GW target as Nigeria’s power requirements today based on total population is estimated in excess of 100GW.

Our leaders need put in place serious plans for approval of critical Mega projects that will add large amounts of GW supply to the grid. The approval of single generation plants with installed capacities of less than 1 GW (example the 0.7GW Zengeru dam approved this year) will not cut it unless the goal is to have multiple similar sized projects approved around the same time frame. Initiating one-two small generation plants of this size a year will not even bring us close to our target in the next decade. It should be noted that mega transmission projects would also be required on the transmission grid to accommodate for the increased generation supply to the grid.

Nations like China, Taiwan and Russia were faced with planning growing their power sector to meet their consumer demands. These countries proved their commitment to their people’s growth and development by stepping up to the plate to design and construct major projects to meet the increasing power demands of their nation. Nigeria is expected to make a similar statement and commitment to its people by planning and executing projects of equal or greater magnitude to meet the embarrassing power shortfall in the country.