Nigeria to make International History if Generation Supply grows to 10GW (100% growth) by 2014

Nigerian to make International History if its generation supply grows to 10GW (100% growth) by 2014

Chinedu Nebo, Nigeria’s minister of power has promised Nigerians 10GWs of power supply by December 2014. Currently, Nigeria sits at about 3GW to 4GW for its normal operations. The country peaked its generation supply at 4.5GW in December 2012 and has not achieved that peak since then. 

If Nigeria were to attain the 10GW target by 2014, it would mean an annual growth in the sector of over 100%. This would make it the fastest observed growth in generation supply in the international community. Currently China holds this title with India as the runner up.  From 2000 to 2009, China’s generating capacity grew at an annual growth rate of 11.8% [worldbank.org/ppp]. India in the last decade grew at an annual rate of 6.5% and plans to grow in the next 5 years by 8.5% which is still short of the capacity it requires for stable electricity. Given the growth in generation capacity is directly proportional to the GW supply, these rates can be applied to the growth rates in the GW supplied.

The ministry of power is proposing annual growth rates that are about 10 times the current rates seen in power sectors of the fastest growing economies in the world.  

A growth in the generation supply to 10GW would also correspond to a growth in your transmission and distribution networks to accommodate the increased supply.  With TCN insolvent and not able to service its current costs, how is the transmission network’s capacity expected to grow by over 100% without proper funding.  The government expects this growth to happen magically without adequately funding to meet this optimistic target. To achieve growths of this historical magnitude, TCN should be given a blank check to support its optimistic growth. The company should not be left to source for investors in a sector that is insolvent and cannot currently pay all of its costs. Even with a blank check, these timelines are very optimistic considering the numerous studies to be executed, the complexity in engineering, the lead times of major equipment, the acquisition of proper right of ways for transmission lines and substation and most of all the coordination between all relevant contractors.

 Nigeria needs to set more realistic goals that can be achieved.  Even with the planned goal of achieving 40GWs by 2020, we are still looking at an annual growth rate of 37% which is still multiples above the observed growth rates in the fastest growing economies of the world. Re-building and growing a sector that has been neglected for many years is not an easy task and takes time. This is understood.  More realistic predictions should be made by the sector and then communicated to the Nigerian people.  Like the Don Priestman, the CEO of Manitoba said in an interview with the Gaurdian,” There is no Magic wand with TCN”.  This statement should not only be applied to TCN but to the whole Nigerian power sector.